Property Update - May 2025

Monthly highlights
 

• With three months of consecutive monthly rises, the national Home Value Index has recorded the highest rolling three month change since September 2024, but still well below the 5yr average of 1.7%/quarter.

• The 3.2% annual change was the lowest since the year ending August 2023. Considering the softening monthly trend through 2024, the annual change is set to reduce further over the coming months

• After loosing some of the February rate cut exuberance through April, the rolling four-week change in dwelling values has seen a recent uptick, with the walk back of US tariffs and a strong majority result in the federal election restoring some confidence.

• Multiple public holidays, ongoing affordability constraints and growing uncertainly surrounding US tariffs and the federal election saw sales activity slump in April, with CoreLogic’s estimated monthly sales count falling to 37,774 nationally, taking the annual count (525,313) to its lowest result in nine months. Despite this slide, the 12 month estimate of national sales remains 2.7% above the levels seen this time last year and 3.0% above the previous five-year average.

• Vendor discounting rates continued to tighten, with the three-month national median compressing from 3.6% in the  three months to January to -3.5% over the three months to April. 

• The flow of new listings has been mostly tracking below the previous five-year average since late last year, a trend that became more evident through April due to seasonal factors including the Easter and ANZAC day long weekends. A dent to consumer sentiment could be another factor influencing the softer trend in new listings through the month. As the market moves into winter, the flow of new listings is likely to remain low relative to March levels.

• Multiple long weekends and uncertainty around US tariffs and the federal election saw auction activity dip and capital city clearance rates slide in April. Over the week ending 27th April, the capitals' hosted the quietest post easter auction week since 2019, with just 1,076 homes auctioned, while the average combined capital clearance rate fell from 62.0% over the four weeks to March 30th to 60.0%. 

• The annual pace of rental growth has eased to its slowest rate since the 12 months to March 2021, with national rental values up 3.6%. Perth (5.7%), Melbourne (2.0%), Sydney (1.9%), Adelaide (5.5%) and Brisbane (3.3%) have all seen a marked decline in the annual rate of rent growth compared to this time last year, while Hobart (5.4%) and Darwin (5.0%) have seen rents gain momentum.

• Monthly dwelling approvals have trended higher from a low mid-2024 trough to be 13.4% higher compared to March last year. A 49.7% jump in unit approvals has been the primary driver of the upswing, while an earlier rise in house approvals has steadied since November last year. Over the past six months, the monthly number of dwelling approvals has averaged about 15,900, well below the 20,000 per month needed to achieve the Housing Accord target of 1.2m homes in five years

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