Westpac IQ

Monday re-issue edition: analysis and forecasts for this week's key releases.

Friday edition: analysis and forecasts for this week's key releases.

Business investment is now in the driver’s seat on growth, implying credit growth is a less reliable guide to financial conditions more broadly.

Productivity has become one of Australia's most pressing economic challenges, but leading businesses are demonstrating that practical improvements can come from many different sources.

How can companies secure the capital needed to extract, process and refine critical minerals and rare earths in Australia, as the global race to stockpile gains momentum?

As Australian consumers and businesses become increasingly connected to the global economy, advances in data, technology and customer insights are reshaping foreign exchange. The result is a more relevant customer experience and, ultimately, greater confidence when transacting across borders.

The Australian dollar came under pressure last week, falling to a one-month low of 0.7075 as higher oil prices, rising US bond yields and a stronger US dollar weighed on sentiment. The Australian dollar starts the week cautiously above 0.7100 as improving risk sentiment and lower oil prices provide some support. Locally this week, markets will be focusing on comments from RBA Gov. Bullock and Assistant Gov. Hunter (Tue) and Australia's August jobs report (Thur). Fedspeak, global PMIs and President Xi's visit to the US are also on the radar.

The Australian dollar starts the week a little chastened and under pressure in the 0.7140-50 area, having surrendered close to a cent from last week's highs as a mix of familiar risks resurface and new ones emerge. Middle East oil supply risks have returned, with Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline shut and efforts to establish a temporary Hormuz shipping route delayed. Risk appetite has also taken a hit on weekend calls from leading AI executives urging a slower pace of model development. The domestic calendar offers little this week beyond RBA Governor Bullock's testimony to Parliament Friday. Instead, markets will be driven offshore, where expected rate hikes from both the Fed and BoJ compete with an increasingly volatile Middle East for attention.

The Australian dollar finished another week on the front foot, closing on the 0.72-handle for the first time since early May. While a stronger than expected US jobs report briefly supported the US dollar Friday night, most of that move quickly faded. The week ahead brings several RBA speaking engagements, local sentiment surveys and important US inflation data that will decide whether the Fed hikes rates 16 Sep.