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Latest economics

Australia and NZ Weekly 13 April 2026

April 10 2026 10 mins

Friday edition: analysis and forecasts for this week's key releases.

On hoping you’ll be wrong

April 10 2026 8 mins

Forecasts are an assessment of the most likely outcome, not the preferred one. The ceasefire announcement was welcome, but whether it holds is highly uncertain.

Australia and NZ Weekly 6 April 2026

April 07 2026 10 mins

Tuesday re-issue edition: analysis and forecasts for this week's key releases.

Thought leadership

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Financial markets strategy

The week ahead is charged with consequence for global markets and the Australian dollar. Markets are being bombarded by mutually contradictory headlines - aggressive escalation rhetoric alongside ceasefire proposals. Through this noise, AUD has carved out a (fragile) pocket of stability. Intraday trade remains messy, but from 2 month lows near 0.6833 last week, the Australian dollar has edged back above 0.6900. This stability is not reassurance though. Pencil in wide ranges for AUD this week. The week also includes the local Feb household spending indicator, FOMC minutes, US Feb PCE/March CPI and an RBNZ OCR decision

The Australian dollar finally breached the key 0.6890/6900 support area late last week, and while downside momentum hasn't accelerated meaningfully through this level, it is trading heavy. Four weeks of conflict are forcing a harder reckoning for global markets. US-Iran de-escalation looks increasingly distant, and markets are increasingly pricing in duration, not resolution. The Easter shortened week ahead calendars include the minutes from the RBA’s March meeting and US March payrolls. These releases likely have no more than a fleeting impact while war headlines dominate. The March final global PMIs and the March US ISM surveys are out too, and we should see some more glimpses of the energy supply disruption in these surveys.

Markets hone in on 48 hour ultimatum

March 23 2026 4 mins

The week ahead feels like it could be very consequential for global markets as the US-Iran war potentially comes to a head. President Trump's 48 hour ultimatum risks aggravating the escalation cycle, and bringing substantially more damage to regional energy infrastructure. The Australian dollar hasn't taken these events well and is starting the week on the back foot below 0.7000. Local calendars this week are headlined by domestic Feb CPI, Central Bank speak and global March PMIs, the first read on economic damage since the conflict began.

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