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Australian dollar grappling US-Iran war and March RBA
The Australian dollar starts the week well off its YTD highs of 0.7187, sitting just above the 70‑cent mark, caught in a tug‑of‑war; on one hand, a persistent war‑related risk premium and elevated oil prices are stoking inflation concerns and underpinning a firmer USD; on the other, expectations of an RBA rate hike tomorrow and Australia’s status as a net energy exporter continue to offer material support. While AUD has opened the week modestly lower on the crosses, the broader price action speaks to resilience rather than fragility, with the currency holding its ground amid ongoing volatility.
Global Markets Jolted on War and Oil Risks
As we go to print, extreme volatility is gripping markets. News over the weekend has been anything but reassuring - the Hormuz Strait remains effectively closed, regional energy producers are shuttering facilities and policymakers are scrambling to secure their supplies. Crude blends are up more than 20%, a range of regional bourses are limit down (Nikkei -7%), the defensive ASX is down only 3.5% while US equity futures are down more than 2%. The Australian dollar gave up the 0.70-handle at the start of trading this week (-0.6%), and is surprisingly holding in well against these wider market moves. The calendars are much less eventful in the week ahead and will in any case be a very distant consideration to the dramatic upheaval in energy markets.
Australian dollar tenuously holds on following US-Iran strikes
The Australian dollar witnessed a choppy grind higher last week; renewed tariff uncertainty and AI/tech angst saw AUD/USD open the week softer, before hotter local CPI and comments from Gov. Bullock triggered a mid-week rally, with the pair closing above 0.7100 on Friday. Weekend headlines of the US carrying out a strike against Iran saw AUD/USD slip down to the mid 0.7000s on Monday's open, however the pair has since clawed its way back to around 0.7100. Geopolitics remains at the forefront this week, however there is plenty on the calendar too; RBA Gov. Bullock, Assistant Gov. Hunter and Deputy Gov. Hauser will speak - we also receive local Q4 GDP, US Feb non-farm payrolls and Fedspeak.
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