Property Update - March 2026

Monthly highlights
 

• Although the pace of growth has slowed, a clear two-speed dynamic remains at play across the capital city housing markets. The mid-sized capitals are all recording monthly gains above 1.0%, even accelerating in Perth, while the largest capitals have seen growth flatten

• The monthly trend in home sales is moving out of the seasonally weak months of December and January, with estimates of settled sales tracking 5.5% higher than a year ago over the rolling quarter to be slightly above the five-year (+0.7%). In annual terms, estimated sales are up 5.5% year on year, with regional markets leading the trend, up 8.9% compared with a 3.7% rise across the combined capitals. Across the capitals, Darwin has recorded the largest increase in estimated annual sales, jumping 34.0% compared with the same time in 2025

• With a softer than average flow of new listings to market, alongside higher levels of purchasing activity relative to a year ago, the volume of advertised stock remains well below average. Nationally, inventory levels were 14% lower than at the same time last year, ranging from more than a 30% drop in Perth and Darwin to a 3.2% decrease across the ACT.

• The rental vacancy rate fell back to 1.5% in February tracking around record lows, supporting a reaccelerating trend in rental growth that has been evident mid-2025. The national rental index is up 5.5% over the 12 months to February, rising from a recent cyclical low of 3.4% mid-last-year.

• Dwelling approvals recorded a 7.2% fall in January, attributable to a sharp 21.0% drop in unit approvals, offset by a 1.2% rise in house approvals. The steep fall in approvals across the unit sector comes after a 32% decline in December and a volatile run-up since mid-2024. Momentum is clearer across the detached housing sector, where approvals are 6.5% higher compared with a year ago and 1.2% above the decade average.

• First home buyer lending was up sharply in Q4, increasing 6.8% by volume and 15.5% by value, coinciding with the expansion of the 5% deposit guarantee. First home buyers as a share of the value of home lending rose to 29.6% over the quarter, slightly above the decade average of 27.4%. First home buyers held the largest share of owner occupier demand in the Northern Territory (also the most affordable housing market), comprising 38.1% of lending. Firsts home buyers in NSW (27.0%) and Qld (27.3%) recorded the smallest share owner occupier lending.

• Average variable rates for both owner-occupier and investor new loans held reasonably firm in January, recorded at 5.51% and 5.67%, respectively. Fixed rates across both ownership types ticked a little higher, with <=3yr fixed rates rising to 5.27% and 5.51%, while >3yr fixed rates investor rates rose to 5.95% for owner occupiers and 6.17% for investors. With the cash rate rising 25 basis point in February, and an expectation that interest rates will move higher later in the year, its likely average mortgage rates have further to climb.

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