Property Update - July 2025

Monthly highlights
 

• National housing values rose 1.4% over the second quarter of the year, with the pace of growth accelerating from the 0.9% rise seen in Q1 and -0.1% decline recorded over the three months to December.

• The 28-day rolling change in Cotality’s daily home value index has held relatively steady since the middle of June, with capital city values up 0.6% and regional values up 0.5%.

• Cotality estimates there were 531,457 sales nationally over the 2024-25 financial year, up 2.7% from the 517,597 seen in the 2023-24 FY. Across the capitals and regional markets, Darwin saw the largest increase in estimated sales, up 44.0% compared to the previous 12-month period, followed by Regional Victoria (21.7%), Regional NT (17.5%) and Canberra (12.0%). Sydney, Perth and Brisbane were the only regions to see a decline in annual sales activity, down -5.7%, -1.9% and -0.9% respectively.

• Regional vendors are negotiating less in order to secure a sale, with the median discounting rates across the combined regions easing from -3.8% in three months to March to 3.6% in Q2. The combined capital also saw a mild decline in discounting rates over the June quarter, with the median dropping from -3.3% to 3.2%.

• New listing activity across the capital cities and the rest of the state regions remained weak over the four weeks to June 29th, with each region observing fewer new listings compared to the same time last year. Similarly, total listings were down almost universally, with only Adelaide (2.3%), Perth (6.8%), and Canberra (0.8%) seeing stock levels rise relative to last year.

• Rental growth continued to ease in the June quarter, with the national rental index recording its smallest Q2 increase (1.3%) since 2020. Over the year, national rents increased by 3.4%, which is less than half the 7.8% rise seen over the 2023-24 financial year, but still 1.4 percentage points above the pre-COVID decade average of 2.0%.

• Monthly dwelling approvals rose 3.2% in May, following the -12% decline from January to April and a 22.3% rise recorded over 12 months to January. The month-on-month increase was led by the unit segment, with approvals up 9.0%, while house approvals held relatively flat over the month (0.1%). While up 6.5% compared to this time last year, dwelling approvals remain 23.9% below the 20,000 a month required to meet the national housing accord targets.

• In a move that went against market expectations, the RBA kept the cash rate on hold at 3.85% at the July board meeting. The hold decision came despite inflation falling below the mid-point of the 2-3% target range in May (based on the monthly inflation indicator), sluggish retail spending and a relatively soft outcome for GDP in the first quarter.

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