We’ve arrived at a really interesting moment for the Australian housing market.
Last year was a difficult one which saw substantial price declines, very weak turnover into the close, and a sequence of large interest rate rises.
We had seen a little bit of optimism creep back in over the Christmas/New Year period. The break had served most people well and I think many were looking to anticipate the peak in the tightening cycle and maybe look for opportunities.
However, the RBA's first decision this year in February - raising rates by further quarter percentage point and indicating that we clearly have more increases to come – has come as a dose of cold water just prior to the reopening of the market.
It will be a real test in February to see how things wash up, but unfortunately it looks like the soft finish we saw last year is going to continue. There are also signs of an overhang of stock emerging in some markets like Sydney and Melbourne.
So, It looks like being another challenging year ahead.
There are some positives starting to emerge: we’re definitely most of the way through this interest rate tightening cycle, with the peak getting closer.
There are also some encouraging signs around population-driven demand. Net migration inflows have been very strong and that's often a precursor for the next cycle for housing markets in terms of which markets may lead or lag.
But for now, interest rates are still the dominant issue for housing. It won't be until we get clear visibility that the tightening cycle is over, and we start to look towards rate cuts maybe next year, that the market is going to look a lot better, and there is some risk around that.
The inflation side of things is still threatening. The RBA could go further than the additional two rate hikes we are currently expecting, so we're going to have to watch that very closely.
Matthew is a senior economist with Westpac. His specific areas of expertise are housing markets and the Australian consumer sector. Matthew’s research has been instrumental in shaping Westpac’s views on the Australian economy, including recent calls on official interest rates. His research has provided important insights into housing market developments and the behaviours of the Australian consumer. He is the author of Westpac’s monthly Red Book report, regards as essential reading on the consumer sector. Before joining the Westpac team in 2007, Matthew held senior positions with leading economic consultancies in Australia and New Zealand.
{"topicSelector":[{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/economy","name":"economy","description":"Explore more Economy insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Economy","url":"/news/topic.economy/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/banking","name":"banking","description":"Explore more Banking insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Banking","url":"/news/topic.banking/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/digital","name":"digital","description":"Explore more Digital insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Digital","url":"/news/topic.digital/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/diversity","name":"diversity","description":"Explore more Diversity insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Diversity","url":"/news/topic.diversity/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/community","name":"community","description":"Explore more community insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Community","url":"/news/topic.community/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/sustainability","name":"sustainability","description":"Explore more sustainability insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Sustainability","url":"/news/topic.sustainability/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/technology","name":"technology","description":"Explore more Technology insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Technology","url":"/news/topic.technology/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/property","name":"property","description":"Explore more Property insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Property","url":"/news/topic.property/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/westpac","name":"westpac","description":"Stories featuring Westpac corporate news.","title":"Westpac","url":"/news/topic.westpac/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/innovators","name":"innovators","description":"Explore more Innovators insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Innovators","url":"/news/topic.innovators/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/leadership","name":"leadership","description":"Explore more Leadership insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Leadership","url":"/news/topic.leadership/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/covid19","name":"covid19","description":"Stories influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic.","title":"COVID-19","url":"/news/topic.covid19/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/investing","name":"investing","description":"Explore more Innovators insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Investing","url":"/news/topic.investing/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/sme","name":"sme","description":"Explore more Small Medium Enterprise insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"SME","url":"/news/topic.sme/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/startups","name":"startups","description":"Explore more Startups insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Startups","url":"/news/topic.startups/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/workplace","name":"workplace","description":"Explore more workplace insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Workplace","url":"/news/topic.workplace/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/personalfinance","name":"personalfinance","description":"Explore more insights about personal finance, financial literacy and financial wellbeing. ","title":"Personal finance","url":"/news/topic.personalfinance/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/agribusiness","name":"agribusiness","description":"Explore more Agribusiness insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Agribusiness","url":"/news/topic.agribusiness/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/billsbites","name":"billsbites","description":"Explore more insights from Bill Evans at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Bill\u0027s Bites","url":"/news/topic.billsbites/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/data","name":"data","description":"Explore more data insights at Westpac Wire.","title":"Data","url":"/news/topic.data/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/scams","name":"scams","description":"Stories about the latest cyber scams news and trends. ","title":"Scams","url":"/news/topic.scams/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/environment","name":"environment","description":"Explore more Environment insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Environment","url":"/news/topic.environment/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/payments","name":"payments","description":"Explore more Payments insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Payments","url":"/news/topic.payments/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/fintech","name":"fintech","description":"Explore more Fintech insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Fintech","url":"/news/topic.fintech/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/politics","name":"politics","description":"Explore more Politics insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Politics","url":"/news/topic.politics/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/career","name":"career","description":"Stories providing career insights, tips and trends.","title":"Career","url":"/news/topic.career/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/social-enterprise","name":"social-enterprise","description":"Stories relevant to or featuring social enterprises.","title":"Social enterprise","url":"/news/topic.social-enterprise/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/regulation","name":"regulation","description":"Explore more Regulation insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Regulation","url":"/news/topic.regulation/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/indigenous","name":"indigenous","description":"Explore more indigenous insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Indigenous","url":"/news/topic.indigenous/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/wellbeing","name":"wellbeing","description":"Stories featuring wellbeing trends, insights and stories.","title":"Wellbeing","url":"/news/topic.wellbeing/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/superannuation","name":"superannuation","description":"Explore more Superannuation insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Superannuation","url":"/news/topic.superannuation/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/westpac-scholars","name":"westpac-scholars","description":"Stories featuring Westpac Scholars. ","title":"Westpac Scholars","url":"/news/topic.westpac-scholars/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/reinventure","name":"reinventure","description":"Explore more Reinventure insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Reinventure","url":"/news/topic.reinventure/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/asia","name":"asia","description":"Explore more Asia insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Asia","url":"/news/topic.asia/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/podcast","name":"podcast","description":"Explore Westpac Wire\u0027s podcast series.","title":"Podcast","url":"/news/topic.podcast/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/history","name":"history","description":"Stories unearthed from Westpac\u0027s private archival collection. ","title":"History","url":"/news/topic.history/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/businesses-of-tomorrow","name":"businesses-of-tomorrow","description":"Stories featuring Westpac Businesses of Tomorrow program winners. ","title":"Westpac Businesses of Tomorrow","url":"/news/topic.businesses-of-tomorrow/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/tax","name":"tax","description":"Explore more tax insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Tax","url":"/news/topic.tax/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/goodpair","name":"goodpair","description":"Explore more Good Pair stories, showing two people making a big difference together. ","title":"Good Pair","url":"/news/topic.goodpair/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/opinion","name":"opinion","description":"Expert opinions and insights. ","title":"Opinion","url":"/news/topic.opinion/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/deals","name":"deals","description":"Explore more Deals insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Deals","url":"/news/topic.deals/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/veterans","name":"veterans","description":"Explore more insights about defence force veterans at Westpac Wire.","title":"Veterans","url":"/news/topic.veterans/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/currencies","name":"currencies","description":"Stories providing currencies insights, tips and trends.","title":"Currencies","url":"/news/topic.currencies/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/analysis","name":"analysis","description":"Expert analysis on economic news and other trends.","title":"Analysis","url":"/news/topic.analysis/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/IWD","name":"IWD","description":"Stories focusing on International Women\u0027s Day, on 8 March annually. ","title":"IWD ","url":"/news/topic.IWD/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/luciscall","name":"luciscall","description":"Explore more insights from Westpac\u0027s chief economist Luci Ellis at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Luci\u0027s Call","url":"/news/topic.luciscall/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/rework","name":"rework","description":"Stories of businesses pivoting in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.","title":"Rework","url":"/news/topic.rework/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/10Qs","name":"10Qs","description":"\"10Qs with...\" is a series that asks leaders what makes them tick.","title":"10Qs","url":"/news/topic.10Qs/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/commodities","name":"commodities","description":"Insights into commodities markets.","title":"Commodities","url":"/news/topic.commodities/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/quarterlife","name":"quarterlife","description":"Explore more Quarter Life insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Quarter Life","url":"/news/topic.quarterlife/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/shareholders","name":"shareholders","description":"Stories relevant to Westpac shareholders.","title":"Shareholders","url":"/news/topic.shareholders/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/climate","name":"climate","description":"Explore more climate insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Climate ","url":"/news/topic.climate/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/esg","name":"esg","description":"Explore more insights on environmental, social and governance issues at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"ESG","url":"/news/topic.esg/"}]}