Westpac IQ

Monday re-issue edition: analysis and forecasts for this week's key releases.

Friday edition: analysis and forecasts for this week's key releases.

The Middle East conflict is not Venezuela, or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or COVID. Policymakers should not use “the last war” as a template for the current one.

Australia’s payments rails are among the best in the world, but global money is changing fast. As stablecoins, deposit tokens and tokenised assets move from experimentation to real use in cross-border payments and markets, the question is less whether change is coming, and more whether Australia will proactively shape it or inherit it.

The countdown is on for regulatory clarity on stablecoins, and it's time for banks, regulators and policymakers to prepare for what could be a fundamental reshaping of Australia's financial system. Here's what you need to know.

As 2025 has come to a close, our Q4 Sustainable Finance market update reviews the year's performance, looks at what’s ahead for 2026 and highlights developments in nature and finance. You’ll also find news on the latest market deals and details about an upcoming event you won't want to miss.

The Australian dollar finally breached the key 0.6890/6900 support area late last week, and while downside momentum hasn't accelerated meaningfully through this level, it is trading heavy. Four weeks of conflict are forcing a harder reckoning for global markets. US-Iran de-escalation looks increasingly distant, and markets are increasingly pricing in duration, not resolution. The Easter shortened week ahead calendars include the minutes from the RBA’s March meeting and US March payrolls. These releases likely have no more than a fleeting impact while war headlines dominate. The March final global PMIs and the March US ISM surveys are out too, and we should see some more glimpses of the energy supply disruption in these surveys.

The week ahead feels like it could be very consequential for global markets as the US-Iran war potentially comes to a head. President Trump's 48 hour ultimatum risks aggravating the escalation cycle, and bringing substantially more damage to regional energy infrastructure. The Australian dollar hasn't taken these events well and is starting the week on the back foot below 0.7000. Local calendars this week are headlined by domestic Feb CPI, Central Bank speak and global March PMIs, the first read on economic damage since the conflict began.

The Australian dollar starts the week well off its YTD highs of 0.7187, sitting just above the 70‑cent mark, caught in a tug‑of‑war; on one hand, a persistent war‑related risk premium and elevated oil prices are stoking inflation concerns and underpinning a firmer USD; on the other, expectations of an RBA rate hike tomorrow and Australia’s status as a net energy exporter continue to offer material support. While AUD has opened the week modestly lower on the crosses, the broader price action speaks to resilience rather than fragility, with the currency holding its ground amid ongoing volatility.