Westpac IQ

Monday re-issue edition: analysis and forecasts for this week's key releases.

Friday edition: analysis and forecasts for this week's key releases.

Scenario analysis is essential in uncertain times, but it must be well-grounded, not just drawing an arbitrary line on a graph.

From 1 October 2026, merchants will no longer be allowed to charge their customers a surcharge when they pay with a card. It’s part of a suite of retail payments reforms being introduced by the Reserve Bank of Australia.The changes present an opportunity for businesses to review what their own payment service provider is charging them to accept payments and ensure that they receive the full benefit of all the reforms, says Joel Lenhardt, Managing Director of Merchant Payments at Westpac.

The latest edition of Sustainability Impact explores early findings from Group 1 AASB S2 reporters, recommendations from the Australian Government’s Carbon Leakage Review, the new clean energy partnership between Australia and Canada, a potential breakthrough for green hydrogen, and a project that brings together renewable energy uplift, housing affordability and regional prosperity, plus more.

Australia’s payments rails are among the best in the world, but global money is changing fast. As stablecoins, deposit tokens and tokenised assets move from experimentation to real use in cross-border payments and markets, the question is less whether change is coming, and more whether Australia will proactively shape it or inherit it.

Big moves in the Australian dollar on Monday mornings have become increasingly common since the US-Iran war began, and this week is no exception. After touching a new peak of 0.7222 on Friday optimism around the reopening of the Strait, the Australian dollar is back in the mid-to-low 0.71s today. This week’s data calendar is relatively light. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh faces his Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday, and his framing of monetary policy in the face of an energy shock will matter for FX markets. Other events include April flash PMIs, US March retail sales and New Zealand Q1 CPI.

The Australian dollar starts the week contending with yet another round of weekend war-related headlines. A two-week US-Iran ceasefire is technically still alive, but effectively on life-support. Weekend US-Iran negotiation yielded nothing, and President Trump has since announced a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports. The Australian dollar opened the week US¾ of a cent lower on this news. But it found a floor just below USD0.7000, and faces a more active local calendar this week - Mar/Apr consumer and business surveys, Mar labour force, several RBA speaking engagements and China’s Q1 GDP and March activity data.

The week ahead is charged with consequence for global markets and the Australian dollar. Markets are being bombarded by mutually contradictory headlines - aggressive escalation rhetoric alongside ceasefire proposals. Through this noise, AUD has carved out a (fragile) pocket of stability. Intraday trade remains messy, but from 2 month lows near 0.6833 last week, the Australian dollar has edged back above 0.6900. This stability is not reassurance though. Pencil in wide ranges for AUD this week. The week also includes the local Feb household spending indicator, FOMC minutes, US Feb PCE/March CPI and an RBNZ OCR decision