Westpac IQ

Tuesday re-issue edition: analysis and forecasts for this week's key releases.

Friday issue edition: analysis and forecasts for this week's key releases.

A genuine cyclical upswing in consumer spending is underway. This follows a long period of weakness and should not be assumed to be signalling a runaway inflationary boom.

As consumers open their wallets and splash their cash over the upcoming holiday period, they should be aware that it’s a time when scammers are also getting busy.

The countdown is on for Payday Super and it’s time for super funds and employers to upgrade processes and prepare for the real-time regime. Here’s what you need to know.

Are super funds becoming the new private capital?

Markets could not take a breather last week; unrest in Iran, escalating threats to Greenland's sovereignty and a US DoJ investigation into the Fed topped the market's list of watch points. The Australian dollar encouragingly held its ground for much of the week, in a relatively contained 0.6660-0.6730 range, and periodically hit new highs on several crosses. The week ahead is quieter on the global data front and locally the Dec. labour force report is out Thursday. We will no doubt remain hostage to fast moving events around all the big geopolitical stories of the day.

We've only bedded down one full week of trading in the new year, but it feels like we've had to process a year's worth of consequential news already; most obviously the toppling of Venezuelan President Maduro, unrest in Iran and threats to Greenland's territorial integrity. There's been no let-up today, with Fed Chair Powell announcing that the Fed has been served a grand jury subpoena threatening criminal indictment. The week ahead should be no less lively when it comes to geopolitics, ongoing threats to Fed independence and the data flow. The week ahead is headlined by US Dec CPI and locally, the first read on consumer sentiment in the new year.

The Australian dollar continued its winning ways for a good part of last week, hitting 11-week highs of 0.6686, before a weaker Aussie jobs report undercut some of its bullish momentum. The Australian dollar starts the week in pretty good shape, just shy of 0.6650. It’s a heavy hitting global calendar 2-weeks out from Christmas - Nov US non-farm payrolls, US Oct. CPI and retail sales, alongside ECB, BoE and BoJ policy meetings.