Westpac IQ

Monday re-issue edition: analysis and forecasts for this week's key releases.

Friday edition: analysis and forecasts for this week's key releases.

Assumptions underlying RBA forecasts might be individually reasonable but in combination they suggest a systematically downbeat view of supply capacity growth relative to Treasury’s longer-term view.

The conversation may have shifted but investors worldwide still want green, says Climate Bond Initiative CEO Sean Kidney.

Productivity has become one of Australia's most pressing economic challenges, but leading businesses are demonstrating that practical improvements can come from many different sources.

How can companies secure the capital needed to extract, process and refine critical minerals and rare earths in Australia, as the global race to stockpile gains momentum?

The Australian dollar spent much of last week holding comfortably in the mid-0.71s before buckling under the weight of higher US yields and a softer labour market report. The Australian dollar faces a defining week. The spotlight is firmly on the RBA, with markets expecting a 25bp rate hike tomorrow ahead of Wednesday's CPI. Markets will be closely watching the Governor's press conference, voting split and any commentary around softer labour market conditions for clues on whether further rate hikes remain on the table.

The Australian dollar came under pressure last week, falling to a one-month low of 0.7075 as higher oil prices, rising US bond yields and a stronger US dollar weighed on sentiment. The Australian dollar starts the week cautiously above 0.7100 as improving risk sentiment and lower oil prices provide some support. Locally this week, markets will be focusing on comments from RBA Gov. Bullock and Assistant Gov. Hunter (Tue) and Australia's August jobs report (Thur). Fedspeak, global PMIs and President Xi's visit to the US are also on the radar.

The Australian dollar starts the week a little chastened and under pressure in the 0.7140-50 area, having surrendered close to a cent from last week's highs as a mix of familiar risks resurface and new ones emerge. Middle East oil supply risks have returned, with Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline shut and efforts to establish a temporary Hormuz shipping route delayed. Risk appetite has also taken a hit on weekend calls from leading AI executives urging a slower pace of model development. The domestic calendar offers little this week beyond RBA Governor Bullock's testimony to Parliament Friday. Instead, markets will be driven offshore, where expected rate hikes from both the Fed and BoJ compete with an increasingly volatile Middle East for attention.