In all the coverage of the latest investigation into Australia's retirement system, one of the biggest issues overshadowed by the attention on whether or not to go ahead with increasing the superannuation guarantee is the thing that consumers often struggle with the most.
How much income will I need – and more to the point, receive – in retirement?
This was highlighted early on in the Retirement Income Review (RIR), which found that while the nation’s system is “effective, sound and its costs are broadly sustainable”, it is also complex, not well understood and could be improved.
“People need better information, guidance and good, affordable advice tailored to their needs,” the report, released last week, stated.
“The current financial advice regime is not meeting people’s needs. People struggle to achieve a stable income in retirement,” it continued deeper into the 648-page report.
While the complex issues relating to financial advice and affordability have long proven difficult to solve, the report also explored retirement income projections and the use of calculators in giving consumers more confidence to draw down an income from their superannuation.
Currently, many (but not all) super fund members receive a retirement estimate in their annual statement, including a projection of their account balance and annual income at retirement. Additionally, retirement income calculators are available on fund websites.
Conceding that super funds are restricted in what advice they can provide, the report nevertheless points to the need for better and more accurate long-term projections delivered in a consumer-friendly format. Like other studies, the RIR also highlighted the importance of assumptions when using calculators and the limited view they can provide.
An important consequence of not having access to more accurate estimates is that many super members have unrealistic expectations and are making big decisions without being aware of the risks involved, according to David Bell, executive director at The Conexus Institute.
It’s an area getting increasing attention, the corporate regulator ASIC reviewing its policy framework for setting the longer-term economic and financial assumptions for its MoneySmart superannuation and retirement planner calculators.
For super funds, the RIR found their online retirement income calculators tended to only calculate expected age pension income and suggested superannuation withdrawals. Also, the “assumptions used are not as closely regulated as retirement income projections”.
“Because they offer long-term estimates, assumptions are critical to the effectiveness of both calculators and projections. To help typical people balance their current and future incomes, default assumptions must be reliable and neither overly conservative nor optimistic,” the RIR said.
“The assumptions needed for these calculators and projections include future rates of return on investment, expected Age Pension income and benchmark retirement income. There is a role for regulation in ensuring the assumptions used in all tools are reasonable and consistent.”
Mr Bell said the problem was that fund projections are deterministic, meaning they only provide a single data point estimate, like an average, and don’t explain to consumers what could go wrong. The calculation could dramatically overstate or understate how much to expect from the retirement income pot.
“Consumers have no understanding of the range of retirement outcomes they may face,” he said. "There is a risk they will assume the projections to be certain and they may miss the opportunity to take actions to raise the likelihood of a minimum retirement income."
A better approach is to use a stochastic model which, in simple terms, produces information about the range of retirement outcomes, Mr Bell argued. He’s working on projects making use of UNSW Business School’s new sandbox program, where students are tasked with designing a stochastic retirement estimate methodology for ASIC. They are also charged with developing a way to communicate complex data in a way that can be easily understood.
Referring to the issue of retirement income calculators and projections in an update on its website this month, ASIC said: “ASIC is working to understand how consumers use and act on retirement projections and estimates, including by examining overseas models, and actuarial and other advice. We will consult publicly on proposed changes to legislative relief and guidance by issuing a consultation paper in 2021.”
Looking ahead at future sandbox projects, UNSW senior lecturer Kevin Liu said designing a stochastic retirement planning calculator was on the cards.
“Making consumers aware that the figures can change is a core part of the exercise,” he said. “They want to help provide a solution to a real-life problem and motivate industry leaders to carry out more serious work.”
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Westpac Group.
The information in this article is general information only, it does not constitute any recommendation or advice; it has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs and you should consider its appropriateness with regard to these factors before acting on it. Any taxation position described is a general statement and should only be used as a guide. It does not constitute tax advice and is based on current tax laws and our interpretation. Your individual situation may differ and you should seek independent professional tax advice. You should also consider obtaining personalised advice from a professional financial adviser before making any financial decisions in relation to the matters discussed.
Elizabeth Fry has been a financial journalist for more than 25 years and has written for a clutch of publications, including Investment Magazine, The Financial Times and The Australian Financial Review. She recently completed the Graduate Diploma of Financial Planning.
{"topicSelector":[{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/economy","name":"economy","description":"Explore more Economy insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Economy","url":"/news/topic.economy/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/banking","name":"banking","description":"Explore more Banking insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Banking","url":"/news/topic.banking/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/digital","name":"digital","description":"Explore more Digital insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Digital","url":"/news/topic.digital/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/diversity","name":"diversity","description":"Explore more Diversity insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Diversity","url":"/news/topic.diversity/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/community","name":"community","description":"Explore more community insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Community","url":"/news/topic.community/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/workplace","name":"workplace","description":"Explore more workplace insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Workplace","url":"/news/topic.workplace/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/sustainability","name":"sustainability","description":"Explore more sustainability insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Sustainability","url":"/news/topic.sustainability/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/technology","name":"technology","description":"Explore more Technology insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Technology","url":"/news/topic.technology/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/property","name":"property","description":"Explore more Property insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Property","url":"/news/topic.property/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/westpac","name":"westpac","description":"Stories featuring Westpac corporate news.","title":"Westpac","url":"/news/topic.westpac/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/sme","name":"sme","description":"Explore more Small Medium Enterprise insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"SME","url":"/news/topic.sme/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/innovators","name":"innovators","description":"Explore more Innovators insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Innovators","url":"/news/topic.innovators/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/leadership","name":"leadership","description":"Explore more Leadership insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Leadership","url":"/news/topic.leadership/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/covid19","name":"covid19","description":"Stories influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic.","title":"COVID-19","url":"/news/topic.covid19/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/investing","name":"investing","description":"Explore more Innovators insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Investing","url":"/news/topic.investing/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/startups","name":"startups","description":"Explore more Startups insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Startups","url":"/news/topic.startups/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/personalfinance","name":"personalfinance","description":"Explore more insights about personal finance, financial literacy and financial wellbeing. ","title":"Personal finance","url":"/news/topic.personalfinance/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/agribusiness","name":"agribusiness","description":"Explore more Agribusiness insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Agribusiness","url":"/news/topic.agribusiness/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/scams","name":"scams","description":"Stories about the latest cyber scams news and trends. ","title":"Scams","url":"/news/topic.scams/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/billsbites","name":"billsbites","description":"Explore more insights from Bill Evans at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Bill\u0027s Bites","url":"/news/topic.billsbites/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/data","name":"data","description":"Explore more data insights at Westpac Wire.","title":"Data","url":"/news/topic.data/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/environment","name":"environment","description":"Explore more Environment insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Environment","url":"/news/topic.environment/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/payments","name":"payments","description":"Explore more Payments insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Payments","url":"/news/topic.payments/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/fintech","name":"fintech","description":"Explore more Fintech insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Fintech","url":"/news/topic.fintech/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/politics","name":"politics","description":"Explore more Politics insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Politics","url":"/news/topic.politics/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/career","name":"career","description":"Stories providing career insights, tips and trends.","title":"Career","url":"/news/topic.career/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/social-enterprise","name":"social-enterprise","description":"Stories relevant to or featuring social enterprises.","title":"Social enterprise","url":"/news/topic.social-enterprise/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/indigenous","name":"indigenous","description":"Explore more indigenous insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Indigenous","url":"/news/topic.indigenous/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/regulation","name":"regulation","description":"Explore more Regulation insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Regulation","url":"/news/topic.regulation/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/wellbeing","name":"wellbeing","description":"Stories featuring wellbeing trends, insights and stories.","title":"Wellbeing","url":"/news/topic.wellbeing/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/superannuation","name":"superannuation","description":"Explore more Superannuation insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Superannuation","url":"/news/topic.superannuation/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/westpac-scholars","name":"westpac-scholars","description":"Stories featuring Westpac Scholars. ","title":"Westpac Scholars","url":"/news/topic.westpac-scholars/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/asia","name":"asia","description":"Explore more Asia insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Asia","url":"/news/topic.asia/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/podcast","name":"podcast","description":"Explore Westpac Wire\u0027s podcast series.","title":"Podcast","url":"/news/topic.podcast/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/history","name":"history","description":"Stories unearthed from Westpac\u0027s private archival collection. ","title":"History","url":"/news/topic.history/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/businesses-of-tomorrow","name":"businesses-of-tomorrow","description":"Stories featuring Westpac Businesses of Tomorrow program winners. ","title":"Westpac Businesses of Tomorrow","url":"/news/topic.businesses-of-tomorrow/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/tax","name":"tax","description":"Explore more tax insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Tax","url":"/news/topic.tax/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/luciscall","name":"luciscall","description":"Explore more insights from Westpac\u0027s chief economist Luci Ellis at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Luci\u0027s Call","url":"/news/topic.luciscall/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/goodpair","name":"goodpair","description":"Explore more Good Pair stories, showing two people making a big difference together. ","title":"Good Pair","url":"/news/topic.goodpair/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/opinion","name":"opinion","description":"Expert opinions and insights. ","title":"Opinion","url":"/news/topic.opinion/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/currencies","name":"currencies","description":"Stories providing currencies insights, tips and trends.","title":"Currencies","url":"/news/topic.currencies/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/deals","name":"deals","description":"Explore more Deals insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Deals","url":"/news/topic.deals/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/veterans","name":"veterans","description":"Explore more insights about defence force veterans at Westpac Wire.","title":"Veterans","url":"/news/topic.veterans/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/analysis","name":"analysis","description":"Expert analysis on economic news and other trends.","title":"Analysis","url":"/news/topic.analysis/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/IWD","name":"IWD","description":"Stories focusing on International Women\u0027s Day, on 8 March annually. ","title":"IWD ","url":"/news/topic.IWD/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/rework","name":"rework","description":"Stories of businesses pivoting in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.","title":"Rework","url":"/news/topic.rework/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/10Qs","name":"10Qs","description":"\"10Qs with...\" is a series that asks leaders what makes them tick.","title":"10Qs","url":"/news/topic.10Qs/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/commodities","name":"commodities","description":"Insights into commodities markets.","title":"Commodities","url":"/news/topic.commodities/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/quarterlife","name":"quarterlife","description":"Explore more Quarter Life insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Quarter Life","url":"/news/topic.quarterlife/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/shareholders","name":"shareholders","description":"Stories relevant to Westpac shareholders.","title":"Shareholders","url":"/news/topic.shareholders/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/climate","name":"climate","description":"Explore more climate insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Climate ","url":"/news/topic.climate/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/esg","name":"esg","description":"Explore more insights on environmental, social and governance issues at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"ESG","url":"/news/topic.esg/"}]}
