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Post the polls: 3 min US economic snapshot

03:24pm November 05 2020

Westpac senior economist Elliot Clarke discusses the US election results. (Josh Wall)

As feared, the US election hangs in the balance with neither Trump nor Biden yet to emerge victorious. 

While equity markets have so far taken the non-result in their stride, volatility could rise if the lack of clarity drags on for an extended period. 

Indeed, it’s already been a tumultuous time for the US in the past month. Just as a strong rebound in activity was confirmed by the September quarter GDP report (a 33 per cent annualised gain), new cases of COVID-19 surged once again to fresh highs across the nation. 

Then came this week’s election, making recent events pale in comparison. 

The final sprint to the White House is clearly difficult to predict, with Joe Biden edging ahead at the time of publishing. But President Trump has flagged he will challenge the result. Also, the makeup of Congress remains important, particularly with regards to the size and timing of fiscal stimulus. 

US political certainty may still be a way off. 

The information in this article is general information only, it does not constitute any recommendation or advice; it has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs and you should consider its appropriateness with regard to these factors before acting on it. Any taxation position described is a general statement and should only be used as a guide. It does not constitute tax advice and is based on current tax laws and our interpretation. Your individual situation may differ and you should seek independent professional tax advice. You should also consider obtaining personalised advice from a professional financial adviser before making any financial decisions in relation to the matters discussed.

After four years with the Reserve Bank of Australia, Elliot joined Westpac in 2010. His background includes analysing economic developments in East Asia, and Australia’s foreign assets and liabilities. Elliot’s current responsibilities include developing Westpac’s structural view for the US and Europe, plus providing a macro-financial perspective on the Australian economy.

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