We use cookies to secure and tailor your web use. Our notice explains how we use cookies and how you can manage them. By continuing to use this site we assume you're ok with our notice.
Having just returned from two weeks in the US visiting clients and government officials, two themes were clear.
Firstly, the about-face from the US Federal Reserve late last year led to much discussion after markets revised their expectations on rate hikes, believing the tightening cycle has finished. The December sell-off in the sharemarket, trade tensions between the US and China, the government shutdown and general concerns about global growth contributed to this shift.
My view is that may be a little optimistic, but the Fed may take some time to build the case for further increases in the Fed Funds Rate. We now expect one more hike in December.
The international investors were also interested in what is happening in the Australian housing market and the weakness in the past 12 months is starting to impact their thinking about the economy. Likewise, the Reserve Bank has recently gone from a tightening bias to saying the next move in the cash rate may be up or down following falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne and the spill over on consumers.
This week, the minutes of the Bank’s board meeting for February showed that while the effect of recent price falls on overall economic activity was expected to be relatively small, a very significant warning was inserted that “if prices were to fall much further, consumption could be weaker than forecast, which would result in lower GDP growth, higher unemployment and lower inflation than forecast”.
This statement directly links developments in house prices to the Bank’s key policy forecasts. The causal mechanism would be around a larger “wealth effect” than expected, impacting consumer spending and a sharper downturn in residential building activity. There is mixed evidence around wealth effects in other countries although the scale of the adjustment in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne is too large to downplay.
For the record, the RBA this month lowered its GDP growth forecast to 3 per cent for 2019 and 2.75 per cent for 2020, largely due to softer consumption growth and a sharper downturn in dwelling investment.
Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points in both August and November this year.
This material contains general commentary, and market colour. This material does not constitute investment advice. This information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend that you seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts. Except where contrary to law, Westpac and its related entities intend by this notice to exclude liability for this information.
William (Bill) Evans is Westpac’s economic spokesman and is responsible for all of our economic research. In 1991, Bill joined Westpac as the Chief Economist and Head of Research. A graduate of Sydney University (BEc. Hons I and University Medal) and the London School of Economics (M. Sc.), Bill has worked as Research Manager for the Reserve Bank of Australia and as a Treasurer at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Bill travels frequently, advising Westpac’s customers on the Australian economy and financial markets.
{"topicSelector":[{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/businesses-of-tomorrow","name":"businesses-of-tomorrow","description":"Stories featuring Westpac Businesses of Tomorrow program winners. ","title":"Westpac Businesses of Tomorrow","url":"/news/topic.businesses-of-tomorrow/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/indigenous","name":"indigenous","description":"Explore more indigenous insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Indigenous","url":"/news/topic.indigenous/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/personalfinance","name":"personalfinance","description":"Explore more insights about personal finance, financial literacy and financial wellbeing. ","title":"Personal finance","url":"/news/topic.personalfinance/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/podcast","name":"podcast","description":"Explore Westpac Wire\u0027s podcast series.","title":"Podcast","url":"/news/topic.podcast/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/tax","name":"tax","description":"Explore more tax insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Tax","url":"/news/topic.tax/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/goodpair","name":"goodpair","description":"Explore more Good Pair stories, showing two people making a big difference together. ","title":"Good Pair","url":"/news/topic.goodpair/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/career","name":"career","description":"Stories providing career insights, tips and trends.","title":"Career","url":"/news/topic.career/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/rework","name":"rework","description":"Stories of businesses pivoting in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.","title":"Rework","url":"/news/topic.rework/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/veterans","name":"veterans","description":"Explore more insights about defence force veterans at Westpac Wire.","title":"Veterans","url":"/news/topic.veterans/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/deals","name":"deals","description":"Explore more Deals insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Deals","url":"/news/topic.deals/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/social-enterprise","name":"social-enterprise","description":"Stories relevant to or featuring social enterprises.","title":"Social enterprise","url":"/news/topic.social-enterprise/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/westpac-scholars","name":"westpac-scholars","description":"Stories featuring Westpac Scholars. ","title":"Westpac Scholars","url":"/news/topic.westpac-scholars/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/IWD","name":"IWD","description":"Stories focusing on International Women\u0027s Day, on 8 March annually. ","title":"IWD ","url":"/news/topic.IWD/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/currencies","name":"currencies","description":"Stories providing currencies insights, tips and trends.","title":"Currencies","url":"/news/topic.currencies/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/quarterlife","name":"quarterlife","description":"Explore more Quarter Life insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Quarter Life","url":"/news/topic.quarterlife/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/wellbeing","name":"wellbeing","description":"Stories featuring wellbeing trends, insights and stories.","title":"Wellbeing","url":"/news/topic.wellbeing/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/commodities","name":"commodities","description":"Insights into commodities markets.","title":"Commodities","url":"/news/topic.commodities/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/businesses-of-tomorrow","name":"businesses-of-tomorrow","description":"Stories featuring Westpac Businesses of Tomorrow program winners. ","title":"Westpac Businesses of Tomorrow","url":"/news/topic.businesses-of-tomorrow/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/indigenous","name":"indigenous","description":"Explore more indigenous insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Indigenous","url":"/news/topic.indigenous/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/personalfinance","name":"personalfinance","description":"Explore more insights about personal finance, financial literacy and financial wellbeing. ","title":"Personal finance","url":"/news/topic.personalfinance/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/podcast","name":"podcast","description":"Explore Westpac Wire\u0027s podcast series.","title":"Podcast","url":"/news/topic.podcast/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/tax","name":"tax","description":"Explore more tax insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Tax","url":"/news/topic.tax/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/goodpair","name":"goodpair","description":"Explore more Good Pair stories, showing two people making a big difference together. ","title":"Good Pair","url":"/news/topic.goodpair/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/career","name":"career","description":"Stories providing career insights, tips and trends.","title":"Career","url":"/news/topic.career/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/rework","name":"rework","description":"Stories of businesses pivoting in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.","title":"Rework","url":"/news/topic.rework/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/veterans","name":"veterans","description":"Explore more insights about defence force veterans at Westpac Wire.","title":"Veterans","url":"/news/topic.veterans/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/deals","name":"deals","description":"Explore more Deals insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Deals","url":"/news/topic.deals/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/social-enterprise","name":"social-enterprise","description":"Stories relevant to or featuring social enterprises.","title":"Social enterprise","url":"/news/topic.social-enterprise/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/westpac-scholars","name":"westpac-scholars","description":"Stories featuring Westpac Scholars. ","title":"Westpac Scholars","url":"/news/topic.westpac-scholars/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/IWD","name":"IWD","description":"Stories focusing on International Women\u0027s Day, on 8 March annually. ","title":"IWD ","url":"/news/topic.IWD/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/currencies","name":"currencies","description":"Stories providing currencies insights, tips and trends.","title":"Currencies","url":"/news/topic.currencies/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/quarterlife","name":"quarterlife","description":"Explore more Quarter Life insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Quarter Life","url":"/news/topic.quarterlife/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/wellbeing","name":"wellbeing","description":"Stories featuring wellbeing trends, insights and stories.","title":"Wellbeing","url":"/news/topic.wellbeing/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/commodities","name":"commodities","description":"Insights into commodities markets.","title":"Commodities","url":"/news/topic.commodities/"}]}