There is no denying the stunning recovery in the labour market since the sharp COVID-19-induced downturn last year.
In the past 12 months, employment has bounced hard to be 1 per cent above pre-COVID levels and the unemployment rate has consistently surprised, falling to 5.1 per cent – where it was as the pandemic hit.
While the recovery has not been equal across all sectors, it has nonetheless been broad based and a welcome development.
However, in the last six months momentum nationally has slowed with a larger number of sectors – including mining, agriculture, utilities and construction – going backwards.
This is particularly important because as we move from recovery to the expansion phase, the health of the labour market is key to wages growth and inflation outcomes – and thus when the Reserve Bank begins raising interest rates and the next tightening cycle.
To be sure, uncertainties from lockdowns aside, the outlook for the labour market remains solid in many respects, and we expect the unemployment rate to decline to 4 per cent by June 2022.
But as always, there is a lot more going on in the labour market than headlines let on.
One issue we have been exploring is the unprecedented surge in job vacancies this year, up 105,000, or 41 per cent. That puts vacancies 132,000, or 57 per cent, higher than they were in February 2020, or 90 per cent higher than the previous high more than a decade ago in late 2010.
In contrast, job ads have surged by less to be 40 per cent higher than in February 2020 and remain well below the previous high of May 2008.
The natural conclusion is that this surge in vacancies is pointing to an unprecedented lift in the demand for labour and that will boost wages.
Or is it? And will it?
Firstly, it’s worth remembering that employment data is the stock of people employed while vacancies behave more as a flow of unfilled jobs at a point in time. They tend to rise when new jobs are unfilled, and when an employee leaves an existing job. Vacancies fall when a vacancy is filled by a new employee or when an employer cancels a vacancy because their situation changes or they can’t find a suitable candidate.
Using a “Beverage Curve”, since 1980 there has been a broadly stable relationship between vacancies and unemployment. But since the first quarter of 2020, the analysis suggests a mismatch between the skills of the unemployed and the skills required by the vacant positions.
Yet despite recent debate about skills shortages in certain industries, we think what is actually occurring is more to do with a change in the supply of labour rather than a sudden mismatch of skills.
The hospitality sector highlights the dynamic well.
Of the total increase in vacancies since February 2020, the single largest contribution came from hospitality, up 165 per cent.
Yet hospitality employment is down 6 per cent.
Put another way, there appears to be a significant shortage of staff, even though total employment is lower than it was pre-COVID.
In addition, there’s been a decline in the number of main jobs in the sector but a rise in secondary jobs, suggesting employers are searching for ways to make up for a lack of suitable labour by using workers that are prepared to take a second job.
Taken overall, the extreme surge in hospitality vacancies does not appear to be output or demand related.
Unsurprisingly, the impact of the closed international border on the labour market and broader economy is getting a lot of attention.
With Australia closed to new arrivals and many short-term non-residents departing during the covid period, the ABS has modelled a 290,000 drop in short-term non-residents workers.
While it is clear the loss of these non-resident employees has been a significant factor reducing labour supply and tightening the market, there are other factors at play.
Employers are finding alternative labour sources as people change careers or make different choices because of COVID (as seen with the rise in workers holding a second job). Employers are also looking into alternative arrangements and/or deciding to make do with less staff, either through a reduction in activity or investing in productivity-enhancing technology to maintain output with fewer employees.
Participation has also risen to a record high, driven by a record proportion of females in the workforce, which has boosted the domestic supply of labour.
In short, the border closures have contributed to the rise in vacancies but are likely only one source – and not the sole driver – of the rise in unfilled jobs.
It’s also worth noting that from the ABS we know heading into COVID a number of sectors most exposed to the shock were also in the most fragile or precarious financial position, including non-food retailing, airlines, hospitality and accommodation.
The key takeaway?
With vacancies being boosted by labour shortages rather than excess demand, firms are likely to have a reduced incentive to bid up wages.
The information in this article is general information only, it does not constitute any recommendation or advice; it has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs and you should consider its appropriateness with regard to these factors before acting on it. Any taxation position described is a general statement and should only be used as a guide. It does not constitute tax advice and is based on current tax laws and our interpretation. Your individual situation may differ and you should seek independent professional tax advice. You should also consider obtaining personalised advice from a professional financial adviser before making any financial decisions in relation to the matters discussed.
Justin has 17 years’ experience in Financial Markets. He joined Westpac in 1999 following his early training at the Reserve Bank of Australia. He has spent time in Westpac’s London office and has had a secondment as Chief Economist at St George Bank. Justin’s areas of interest are the international economy, commodity markets and the resources sector. He also analyses the Australia labour market and prices.
{"topicSelector":[{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/economy","name":"economy","description":"Explore more Economy insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Economy","url":"/news/topic.economy/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/banking","name":"banking","description":"Explore more Banking insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Banking","url":"/news/topic.banking/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/digital","name":"digital","description":"Explore more Digital insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Digital","url":"/news/topic.digital/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/diversity","name":"diversity","description":"Explore more Diversity insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Diversity","url":"/news/topic.diversity/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/workplace","name":"workplace","description":"Explore more workplace insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Workplace","url":"/news/topic.workplace/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/community","name":"community","description":"Explore more community insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Community","url":"/news/topic.community/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/sustainability","name":"sustainability","description":"Explore more sustainability insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Sustainability","url":"/news/topic.sustainability/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/technology","name":"technology","description":"Explore more Technology insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Technology","url":"/news/topic.technology/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/property","name":"property","description":"Explore more Property insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Property","url":"/news/topic.property/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/westpac","name":"westpac","description":"Stories featuring Westpac corporate news.","title":"Westpac","url":"/news/topic.westpac/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/sme","name":"sme","description":"Explore more Small Medium Enterprise insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"SME","url":"/news/topic.sme/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/innovators","name":"innovators","description":"Explore more Innovators insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Innovators","url":"/news/topic.innovators/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/leadership","name":"leadership","description":"Explore more Leadership insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Leadership","url":"/news/topic.leadership/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/covid19","name":"covid19","description":"Stories influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic.","title":"COVID-19","url":"/news/topic.covid19/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/investing","name":"investing","description":"Explore more Innovators insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Investing","url":"/news/topic.investing/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/startups","name":"startups","description":"Explore more Startups insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Startups","url":"/news/topic.startups/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/personalfinance","name":"personalfinance","description":"Explore more insights about personal finance, financial literacy and financial wellbeing. ","title":"Personal finance","url":"/news/topic.personalfinance/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/agribusiness","name":"agribusiness","description":"Explore more Agribusiness insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Agribusiness","url":"/news/topic.agribusiness/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/billsbites","name":"billsbites","description":"Explore more insights from Bill Evans at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Bill\u0027s Bites","url":"/news/topic.billsbites/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/data","name":"data","description":"Explore more data insights at Westpac Wire.","title":"Data","url":"/news/topic.data/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/scams","name":"scams","description":"Stories about the latest cyber scams news and trends. ","title":"Scams","url":"/news/topic.scams/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/environment","name":"environment","description":"Explore more Environment insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Environment","url":"/news/topic.environment/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/payments","name":"payments","description":"Explore more Payments insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Payments","url":"/news/topic.payments/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/fintech","name":"fintech","description":"Explore more Fintech insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Fintech","url":"/news/topic.fintech/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/politics","name":"politics","description":"Explore more Politics insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Politics","url":"/news/topic.politics/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/career","name":"career","description":"Stories providing career insights, tips and trends.","title":"Career","url":"/news/topic.career/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/social-enterprise","name":"social-enterprise","description":"Stories relevant to or featuring social enterprises.","title":"Social enterprise","url":"/news/topic.social-enterprise/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/regulation","name":"regulation","description":"Explore more Regulation insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Regulation","url":"/news/topic.regulation/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/indigenous","name":"indigenous","description":"Explore more indigenous insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Indigenous","url":"/news/topic.indigenous/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/wellbeing","name":"wellbeing","description":"Stories featuring wellbeing trends, insights and stories.","title":"Wellbeing","url":"/news/topic.wellbeing/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/superannuation","name":"superannuation","description":"Explore more Superannuation insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Superannuation","url":"/news/topic.superannuation/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/westpac-scholars","name":"westpac-scholars","description":"Stories featuring Westpac Scholars. ","title":"Westpac Scholars","url":"/news/topic.westpac-scholars/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/reinventure","name":"reinventure","description":"Explore more Reinventure insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Reinventure","url":"/news/topic.reinventure/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/asia","name":"asia","description":"Explore more Asia insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Asia","url":"/news/topic.asia/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/podcast","name":"podcast","description":"Explore Westpac Wire\u0027s podcast series.","title":"Podcast","url":"/news/topic.podcast/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/history","name":"history","description":"Stories unearthed from Westpac\u0027s private archival collection. ","title":"History","url":"/news/topic.history/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/businesses-of-tomorrow","name":"businesses-of-tomorrow","description":"Stories featuring Westpac Businesses of Tomorrow program winners. ","title":"Westpac Businesses of Tomorrow","url":"/news/topic.businesses-of-tomorrow/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/tax","name":"tax","description":"Explore more tax insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Tax","url":"/news/topic.tax/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/goodpair","name":"goodpair","description":"Explore more Good Pair stories, showing two people making a big difference together. ","title":"Good Pair","url":"/news/topic.goodpair/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/opinion","name":"opinion","description":"Expert opinions and insights. ","title":"Opinion","url":"/news/topic.opinion/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/deals","name":"deals","description":"Explore more Deals insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Deals","url":"/news/topic.deals/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/veterans","name":"veterans","description":"Explore more insights about defence force veterans at Westpac Wire.","title":"Veterans","url":"/news/topic.veterans/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/currencies","name":"currencies","description":"Stories providing currencies insights, tips and trends.","title":"Currencies","url":"/news/topic.currencies/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/analysis","name":"analysis","description":"Expert analysis on economic news and other trends.","title":"Analysis","url":"/news/topic.analysis/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/IWD","name":"IWD","description":"Stories focusing on International Women\u0027s Day, on 8 March annually. ","title":"IWD ","url":"/news/topic.IWD/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/luciscall","name":"luciscall","description":"Explore more insights from Westpac\u0027s chief economist Luci Ellis at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Luci\u0027s Call","url":"/news/topic.luciscall/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/rework","name":"rework","description":"Stories of businesses pivoting in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.","title":"Rework","url":"/news/topic.rework/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/10Qs","name":"10Qs","description":"\"10Qs with...\" is a series that asks leaders what makes them tick.","title":"10Qs","url":"/news/topic.10Qs/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/commodities","name":"commodities","description":"Insights into commodities markets.","title":"Commodities","url":"/news/topic.commodities/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/quarterlife","name":"quarterlife","description":"Explore more Quarter Life insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Quarter Life","url":"/news/topic.quarterlife/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/shareholders","name":"shareholders","description":"Stories relevant to Westpac shareholders.","title":"Shareholders","url":"/news/topic.shareholders/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/climate","name":"climate","description":"Explore more climate insights at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"Climate ","url":"/news/topic.climate/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/esg","name":"esg","description":"Explore more insights on environmental, social and governance issues at Westpac Wire. Subscribe to the Westpac Wire newsletter to stay in the know.","title":"ESG","url":"/news/topic.esg/"},{"tagId":"newsroom:topics/boardwalk","name":"boardwalk","description":"A series of in-depth podcast interviews with board directors to find out what\u0027s on their minds. ","title":"Board Walk","url":"/news/topic.boardwalk/"}]}