Agribusiness

Regional Economic Report

Volume 4, 2009

Highlights

With the world economy now in recovery mode and with global growth in 2010 forecast to be a healthy 3%, revised up from 2.5% back in July the general ‘demand’ environment in the Agricultural sector is a plus. Varying supply conditions and prospects across the commodities is also a critical factor. For the grains, it is generally a case of abundant supply, whereas for sugar a supply deficit has ignited a price surge. Another major influence is the surge of the Australian dollar.

The Bureau of Meteorology back on 3 June issued a press release warning of an increased risk of El Nino in 2009. The Bureau’s update of late October pointed to a mixed rainfall outlook, suggesting that the “national outlook for rainfall shows a mixed chance of exceeding the median rainfall over the late spring to mid-summer period (November-January).

In our feature article we focus on the wheat industry with Justin Smirk taking a longer term perspective. Rising incomes in the developed world suggests we could see a rising trend in wheat prices just as we expect to see in the hard commodities. But history provides a clear warning against following such optimism blindly. Wheat completely missed the last "super-cycle" as the post war increase in demand collided with the Green Revolution which significantly lifted global productivity and suppressed prices. Research into agriculture has fallen with prices but this is turning following the food riots last year.

Regional Economic Report

 
 Overview (PDF 33kb) 
 Regional report (PDF 772kb)

 Sections 

 Feature article (PDF 54kb)
 Australian economy (PDF 55kb)
 Australian dollar outlook (PDF 90kb)
 Australian interest rates (PDF 69kb)
 Wheat and oilseeds (PDF 120kb)
 Sugar and cotton (PDF 55kb)
 Dairy and beef (PDF 69kb)
 Sheep and wool (PDF 67kb)

Regional Economic Report

 
 Overview (RTF 12kb)
 Regional report (RTF 65kb)

Sections

 Feature article (RTF 12kb) 
 Australian economy (RTF 12kb)
 Australian dollar outlook (RTF 12kb)
 Australian interest rates (RTF 11kb)
 Wheat and oilseeds (RTF 11kb)
 Sugar and cotton (RTF 12kb)
 Dairy and beef (RTF 12kb)
 Sheep and wool (RTF 11kb)

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